When NASCAR made the changes to the qualifying procedures for The Chase, they hoped it would create some more excitement, and offer a winner, who had an otherwise poor year a chance. Certainly the last thing they thought was it would cost a driver like Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Tony Stewart a spot, and offer a chance, instead to a driver like Martin Truex Jr.
A quick look at the points show both Dale Jr. and Stewart barely holding on to the ninth and tenth spots in The Chase with only two events remaining before the field is set. Brad Keselowski, with his three wins, will go from wildcard qualifier in The Chase, to the top ten qualifier, if he maintains his current pace of picking up points.
This would knock either Stewart or Dale Jr. into a position where they would need a win to qualify as a wildcard entry. Neither driver looks to have a winning run in them, if their recent performances are any indication.
The most unbelievable scenario in all this for New Jersey, and/or Martin Truex Jr. race fans is should the Garden State driver manage to win one of the next two races he has a legitimate shot at making The Chase. Truex sits 17th in points, ahead of drivers Paul Menard, and Regan Smith, who have won already this year. In fact, the only driver ahead of him with a win in 2011 is Denny Hamlin, who has also been struggling this year.
There exists a very real possibility, that both Dale Jr., and Stewart could both fall from the top-ten, and if they are unable to win one of the next two races, that would open up a spot for Truex, should he find a way to win one of them.
Certainly, the first thing Truex must do is win. After that, the pieces may just fall into place. Poor performances by Dale Jr., and Stewart, and the continued top finishes by Keselowski, would actually put Truex in contention for the final spot in The Chase.
While it will still take a tremendous effort by Truex and his NAPA Toyota team, and some bad luck, or exceptionly bad runs by others, the mere fact that he still has a chance is amazing. NASCAR has certainly given some New Jersey race fans a chance of hope that their native son might actually have a shot to contend for another championship.
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